TWC goes into Storm Alert mode for first time in 2 years.

Gustav continues to have 115-mph winds, but the pressure has now dropped to 952 mb, indicating that Gustav is beginning to intensify again, and could come in as a Category Four. Due to the proximity, The Weather Channel has gone into Storm Alert mode for the first time in 2 years, and the first time [...]

Gustav is the…Storm of the Century? Haven’t we heard this before?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/08/30/gustav.prepare/index.html
It is like every time something threatens New Orleans, someone calls it the Storm of the Century. Didn’t we give this designation to Ivan and Katrina already? How many times are we going to hear this?

Gustav makes landfall in Cuba.

Gustav just made landfall in Cuba as a 150-mph hurricane, the strongest strike for the nation since Dennis in 2005, and is likely to be over the Gulf of Mexico in the next few hours. Considering the current intensity of Gustav and the amount of water that the storm has to move over before [...]

Gustav reaches 150 mph, Hurricane Watches issued.

5 PM advisory now brings the winds of Gustav to 150 mph, and a hurricane watch has been issued from east of High Island, Texas to the Alabama/Florida border. The NHC still says that Gustav has the potential to become a Category Five before or after it crosses Cuba.

Gustav now a Category 4 with 145 mph winds

Winds have now been increased to 145 mph, and the pressure is down to 935 mb. A special advisory will be issued at 2 PM.
Update 2:10 PM EDT: The pressure is actually 945 mb.

Gustav is now a Category Two

Gustav has become a Category 2 hurricane, and has winds of 100 mph. The lowest extrapolated pressure from the hurricane hunters was 966 mb, although the official pressure hasn’t been mentioned yet. I will be starting a new page for minor updates on Gustav.

Gustav a Category Two by 2 AM?

The eye of Gustav is now beginning to show up on the IR image, and considering the pressure, Gustav could be upgraded to Category 2 at the 2 AM advisory. There hasn’t been a new model of either the GFDL or HWRF, although hopefully one comes out at 2 AM.

Scenarios for Gustav’s U.S. landfall

CMC – Pearl River Island, Louisiana in 120 hours
GFDL – Petit Bois Island, Mississippi in aprox. 87 hours
GFS – Dauphin Island, Alabama in 108 hours
HWRF – Garden Island Bay, Lousiana in 90 hours

Gustav strengthening?

The latest vortex message from the plane has the pressure at 995 mb, and Gustav looks much better than it did earlier, so we may see some increase in winds at 5 AM, and possibly he may become Hurricane Gustav again tonight. I am in the process of creating another page to put small updates [...]

Gustav? How dangerous could it get?

My two main forecasts, the GFDL and HWRF are both setting up devastating scenarios for two cities: the GFDL brings a Cat. 4 Gustav to Galveston, and the 00z run of the HWRF brings the joint 3rd most intense Atlantic hurricane just off Louisiana. The 00z run of the HWRF now strengthens Gustav further than [...]